Bundesliga: Dortmund vs St. Pauli 17/01/2026

3-2

Combo Bet

Dortmund look quite serious this season, but the out of competition Bayern Munich have limited them to 2nd place. The home match against St Pauli is a must win game and the 1.30+ price on the home win clearly reflects the difference in quality between the two sides.

Niko Kovac’s team, however, does not usually produce very high scoring games. They are the team with the most under 2.5 results in the league (10/17). Especially at home, they specialize in professional wins. They attack with control, focus heavily on balance, and against teams outside the top 5 they have 6/6 wins, all with under 3.5, without conceding a single goal (12-0 goal difference).

St Pauli will fight until the end to stay in the division. At the moment they are second from bottom, two points away from direct safety. Compared to other teams at the bottom, they stand out for their toughness and defensive organization.

With only 14 goals in 16 matches, they have the worst attack in the league, while defensively they are doing much better. Especially away from home, with 13 goals conceded, they have one of the six best defensive records in the league.

Dortmund are perfect in manageable home league matches. The defense minded St Pauli once again points us towards a combo bet. Away from home they have 8/9 under 3.5, with the only match going over this line being the 3-1 loss to Bayern Munich. The 1.30 home win rises to 2.18 when combined with under 3.5. At these price levels, it is worth taking the chance.