Europa League Qualification: Aktobe – Legia 17/07/2025

Betting on goals

The European club season has kicked off, and while there aren’t many eye-catching fixtures, a few second-leg ties do stand out. Legia Warsaw entered the first qualifying round of the Europa League as heavy favorites against Aktobe from Kazakhstan, but they travel to the return leg with just a one-goal advantage. Despite dominating possession and taking 9 shots on target, they managed only a narrow 1-0 win.

Aktobe is a relatively new project with a squad full of foreign players, only four starters in the first leg were from Kazakhstan. Their ambitions in European competition aren’t particularly high. The Kazakh league is in full swing, which might be a slight advantage over their Polish opponents, who are just starting their new season.

Goncalo Feio is working to rebuild Legia into a strong side, and their recent Polish Super Cup win over Lech Poznan (2-1) shows positive signs. Wszolek and Shkurin scored the goals in that match.

These two teams also met in the 2014 Europa League playoff round, where Legia won both matches without conceding: 2-0 and 1-0. Given how ineffective Aktobe looked in attack during the first leg, scoring in a fourth straight head-to-head seems unlikely. Legia are usually disciplined and solid on the road, so we expect a cautious game that could easily end 0-0 or 1-0 in favor of the Polish side. Therefore, under 2.5 goals looks like the best option here, and for a small stake, under 1.5 goals might also be worth a try.