How to win online gambling - Strategies and Advice?
This is the question we all wish we had the answer to. There is an answer, but it leads to other questions, and simply knowing the answer on its own will not make you rich. The answer to how can you win online gambling is… you must always bet on value!
It is actually as simple as that. Where people usually go wrong is they bet on what they think will happen, or they try to win more often than they lose, both of which are irrelevant. It is betting on an outcome that has a higher probability of occurring than the odds the bookmaker is offering you. That is what “value” is.
As an example if we were to take a normal six sided die and I am offered the following options for a 1 Euro bet:
| Bet | Cost | Payout | Probability of happening | Total return after 6 rolls |
|---|
| 1/2/3/4/5 | 1 Euro | 1.1 Euros | 83.3% | 0.5x |
| 6 | 1 Euro | 10 Euros | 16.4% | 9x |
Now if the die is rolled what bet do I think will win? I think A will win. It will win 83% of the time. If the question is specifically that, “What bet do you think will win”? Then the answer is Bet A.
However, if the question was what bet would I place, the answer is Bet B. I do not think it is going to happen, there is only a 16.7% chance that it will, but if it does my return will be 10 Euros (so winning 9 Euros).
If we do the maths, over 6 rolls assuming every number occurs once (which in the long run is what will happen) placing Bet A wins 0.10c five times, and then loses the sixth roll (-1 Euro), which is a Net loss of 0.5 Euros. On the other hand placing Bet B will mean that one Euro is lost five times and then on the sixth spin 9 Euros is won, which is is Net profit of 4 Euros.
| Die Roll result | Bet A result | Bet A Running Total | Bet B result | Bet B Running total |
|---|
| 1 | +0.1 Euros | +0.1 | -1 Euro | -1 Euro |
| 2 | +0.1 Euros | +0.2 | -1 Euro | -2 Euro |
| 3 | +0.1 Euros | +0.3 | -1 Euro | -3 Euro |
| 4 | +0.1 Euros | +0.4 | -1 Euro | -4 Euro |
| 5 | +0.1 Euros | +0.5 | -1 Euro | -5 Euro |
| 6 | -1 Euro | -0.5 Euro | + 9 Euro | + 4 Euro |
Placing bet A loses 0.5 Euros and placing Bet B wins 4 Euros… it is an easy choice!
Hopefully you can see from the example above that when you gamble, you have no idea which will win and lose this time, and the only way you can make a consistent long run profit is by betting on value.