What is an Arbitrage Bet?- Expert Guide
In this article we will go on a deep dive into exactly what arbitrage is, where it began, how it works in practice and how you can use it to your advantage.
What is Arbitrage?
The history of arbitrage
Arbitrage in betting
In sports betting you can take part in arbitrage in its purest form by using a betting exchange. Here people can place orders for bets that they want to place at odds they request. If somebody has requested a bet on Team A at odds of 2.4 and they want to place 10 on it, if you can see that your favourite bookmaker has boosted the price on Team A to odds of 2.5, then you could lay the bet at the exchange, and back the exact same bet at the bookmaker. The net result of this would be:
Team A Wins | Team A Does Not Win | |
---|---|---|
Betting Exchange | - 14 | +10 |
Bookmaker | +15 | -10 |
Net Result | +1 | -0 |
As you can see you end up with a small profit if the team wins, and if they do not then the two bets cancel each other out and you do not lose. It would be possible here to edge your bets so that you make about 0.4 either way, which some people do when they “arb” bookmakers.
You should be aware that many bookmakers exclude arbitrage betting in their terms and conditions, although this is impossible for them to prove that you are doing it, they still might close your account if they think that you are.
When did arbitrage bets begin?
Using bets for arbitrage in its true sense could only begin with the advent of betting exchanges which was around the turn of the century. It was possible to back a bet at a bookmaker in the traditional way and simultaneously act as a bookmaker laying the same bet.
Just prior to that a very similar thing was possible where you would bet and guarantee a risk free profit but it was a slightly different method. Instead of laying the same bet that you have placed, you would need to back every other result. This is known as “Dutching” and is not strictly arbitrage but the results are very similar.
Why do bookmakers dislike them?
Bookmakers dislike arbitrage because for several reasons but the main one is that it costs them money in the long run. This is the logical conclusion of it making money for the bettor, if they are winning, the bookmaker is losing. The reason for this is that even though individual bets at the bookmaker can still lose over the long run the odds are of a positive expected value (+EV) and the bookmakers will lose money if the only bets that you place are on these.
They do not mind casual bettors sometimes betting on these bets by accident without realising the arbitrage potential, because the other bets that they place will balance this out and they will still be profitable customers over time. However “arbers” who only place +EV bets will find that the bookmakers will quite quickly either limit the maximum amount that these customers can win or just ban the accounts completely.
How does an arbitrage bet work - An example
We will now show you a real example of an arbitrage bet. These can appear anywhere at anytime but a good tip is to look at where the bookmaker has enhanced or boosted a specific bets price, because there is a good chance that this may be an arb.
Imagine you have found a bet at the bookmaker for the team Barcelona to win at odds of evens (decimal 2). At a betting exchange people are prepared to bet on them at odds of 1.9. You can back Barcelona at the bookmaker for 10 to win another 10, and at exactly the same time lay Barcelona to win for 10 stake at odds of 1.9 which has 9 liability.
The result of this is that if Barcelona win then you win 10 at the bookmaker, lose 9 at the exchange, and win 1, which was for no risk. This is because if Barcelona had have drawn or lost then you would have lost 10 at the bookmaker but won the 10 lay stake amount, so be the same as the start.
Arbitrage vs Dutching
Arbitrage is where you are placing two bets on exactly the same thing, one being the backer (buyer) and the other the layer (seller).
How does dutching work ? - An example
If one bookmaker is offering odds of 1.8 on Ronnie O’Sullivan to win the match and another bookmaker is offering odds of 2.5 on his opponent Judd Trump to win the match, then a risk free profit is possible.
By betting 10 on Ronnie O’Sullivan you will gain a profit of 8 if he wins. If you place 8 on Judd Trump then you will win 12 if he wins. This means that if O’Sullivan wins then your bankroll did not change you won 8 and lost 8, BUT if Judd Trump wins then you are losing the original 10 but winning 12, making a 2 profit for no risk.
How to use Arbitrage to profit from Bonuses
It is not a pure form of arbitrage but bonus hunters can also make risk free profits from using the very same principles. There are slightly different ways to best make a profit from this depending on the type of bonus that you are given. We will briefly describe some of the strategies to use below:
Free Bet Promotions
If you are given a Free bet then to make a profit no matter what you should look for whatever bet at the bookmaker has odds very close to the lay odds at the betting exchange. Aim to use odds around 7 or more, the higher the odds and the closer the two odds the more profit that you will make. Assuming you have found a bet at odds of 11 at the bookmaker and you place a 10 Free bet on it, this will win you 100. At the exchange if you lay 8 at odds of 12 then your liability is 88. If the bet wins your Net result is +12, and if it does not (since the bookmaker bet was free) your Net result is +8. You are certain to make a profit from the Free bet no matter what.
Deposit Match Bonuses
Very similar to making money from a Free bet it can also be done when you are given cash in your account as a reward for making a new deposit. Exactly the same principle is used but this time lower odds are better because the spread between the bookmaker and the exchange odds will be lower also. In theory if you have deposited 10 and been given a 50% match so have 15 in your account, if you bet at odds of 2 then if this bet wins your new balance will be 30. But you only originally deposited 10 so this is 20 profit. At an exchange if you lay 14 at odds of 2.1 this will have liability of 15.4. So if the bet wins your Net result is +4.6. If it loses you lose your 10 bookmaker deposit but wil 14 at the bookmaker so +4. Again it is profit no matter what.
Enhanced Odds Offers
The final type of bonus which can be used as a form of arbitrage is by laying enhanced odds bets at a betting exchange. If a team to win has been boosted from 2.5 to 3, then a 10 bet on this will win 20 profit. The exchange odds may be 2.7. If you lay 11 at 2.7 there is 18.7 liability. So you are now going to make a Net +1.3 if the bet wins, or if it does not +1 when you lose 10 at the bookmaker but win 11 at the exchange. You will profit no matter what happens you are simply not sure where the money will be once the bets settle.
Pros and Cons of arbitrage betting
There are Pros and Cons to everything in life and arbitrage betting is no exception. The main advantages and disadvantages of taking part in this kind of betting activity we have listed below.
- Risk free profit
- Less stress than gambling
- Can be used to grow your bankroll which can then fund other forms of gambling
- No risk of going on tilt
- Can take a lot of time scrolling through odds
- You can have your betting accounts closed
- Returns are certain but always a small amount
Remember to always gamble responsibly
Conclusion
Arbitrage is a tried and tested way to make money gambling online. Arguably it is not even gambling. Will it make you money? If done correctly yes it will. The downside is that it will not make you very much money, it can take a lot of capital tied up at bookmakers, and mistakes are possible, for example miscalculating stakes. The biggest danger is that the odds change before both bets are placed, or worse still one of the bets is completely rejected. Bookmakers do not like people who take part in arbitrage so if you decide to try it be aware that it is not a long term strategy and you will soon have your betting accounts at best limited and possibly closed all together.
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Yes it is perfectly legal in all its forms. Your contract to buy anything does not mean you can not also sell something somewhere else.
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Although you may see it described as risk free, indeed we have in this article, this is not strictly true in practice. There will be a delay between one bet being placed and the other side of the arb beting placed and if odds change in that small window of time you can lose money.
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There is no minimum amount required as such you can start with any figure but in order to make an amount that is worth while then a minimum of 100 would be advised to start with.
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This can be done by analysing the betting patterns of their customers and identifying trends where they have only ever bet on value odds. Things such as betting the max amount possible can also flag your account, as well as being a long run winning player.