NFL: Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins 19/10/2025

Betting on Team Total points

A weather-related bet, but also based on the philosophy of both teams. You’ll find a full analysis in The Goat — here, to keep it short, I’ll just say this: Miami, coming from sunny Florida, struggles enormously in games played under rain, wind, and generally winter conditions. Such weather, according to forecasts, is expected in this game. If the American meteorologists are wrong, I’ll be very disappointed. Yes, I passed meteorology in university (ages ago), but that’s as far as it goes.

The conditions mentioned above make passing games difficult and push teams toward the running game. The Dolphins will try that too, but they’ll face a great defense against that style.

I took Dolphins team points Under 19.5. I would have easily taken Under 18.5 as well — it’s not a key number. If I could find (wishful thinking, autumn dreams) a line at 20 or 20.5 with “7” as the first decimal, I’d bet one and a half units. But never, ever forget — 20 is a big key number.