Premier League: Manchester Utd vs Tottenham 07/02/2026

Given the moderate foul averages of both teams, their high-tempo attacking styles, a referee who allows the game to flow, and a low-foul previous meeting, the overall match context suggests a game with fewer stoppages rather than excessive physicality.

Betting on Fouls

This season’s average number of fouls per match for Manchester United is around 10, while Tottenham are close to 11, which places both teams right in the middle of the league by that metric. They are not overly disciplined sides, but at the same time they are not teams that look to decide matches through physicality and constant stoppages. Instead, both aim for a high tempo, relying on possession and quick transitions, which naturally reduces the need for a large number of fouls. United increasingly try to control games and create chances through structured attacks, while Tottenham tend to play proactive, attacking football with plenty of movement and intensity, but without excessive reliance on tactical fouls.

Another important factor is the referee, Michael Oliver. Although he is known for a slightly firmer approach, his average of around 22–23 fouls per match is not extreme and often stays within the 22.5 line. Oliver generally allows the game to flow and avoids breaking the rhythm for minor contacts, especially in high-intensity matches and big fixtures. This was also evident in the first head-to-head meeting this season, when only 18 fouls were called despite the good tempo and importance of the game.

When all of this is taken into account – the seasonal foul averages of both teams, a playing style that favors tempo and attacking football, a referee who allows continuity, and a previous head-to-head with a relatively low number of fouls – the 22.5 fouls line appears slightly inflated. For that reason, the under 22.5 fouls prediction is well supported by the overall context of the match, not just by raw statistics.