Champions League: Olympiacos vs Pafos 17/09/2025

Betting on Goals

Olympiacos look very much strengthened, especially in attack, but they are still not a fully settled team. They started the league with 3/3 wins and a total goal difference of 9-0, but those numbers don’t fully reflect the difficulties they faced. At home against Asteras Tripolis, they opened the scoring in stoppage time; away against Volos, they scored in the 77th minute; and even in the 5-0 against Panserraikos, it was 0-0 at halftime, with all their goals coming after the opponent went down to ten men.

Pafos had an impressive summer run in qualifying, eliminating Maccabi Tel Aviv, Dynamo Kyiv, and Red Star to book their place in the Champions League League Phase. In those six matches, they kept three clean sheets and had 5/6 under 2.5 games, showing they can adjust their usual attacking style against tougher opponents.

Right now, they look like the better-prepared team, and although they lack Olympiacos’ overall quality, the 1.40 price for the home win feels unfair. My focus is on the scenario of few goals, which is attractive at outsider odds. Mendilibar’s side doesn’t score easily at this stage of the season, and Pafos have shown they can defend effectively.