Premier League: Sunderland vs Liverpool 11/02/2026

The combination of a physically solid home side, Liverpool’s tendency to show frustration away from home, and a stricter refereeing profile provides a solid foundation for the over 3.5 total cards pick.

Betting on Cards

The clash between Sunderland and Liverpool offers good potential in the cards market, primarily due to the playing styles of both teams and the referee’s profile.

Sunderland are not among the most disciplined sides this season. Against stronger opponents, they often resort to a more physical, sometimes even aggressive approach, particularly in defensive phases when they are forced to stop transitions. Against teams with strong pressing and fast wingers, their full-backs and holding midfielders frequently engage in risky challenges, increasing the likelihood of bookings.

Liverpool, on the other hand, despite their superior quality, have shown signs of frustration in away matches this season. When they fail to break the opposition early, tension can build—especially against teams that sit deep and play aggressively. Their high pressing system often leads to tactical fouls after losing possession, and their midfielders are not reluctant to “take one for the team” to stop a counterattack.

An additional factor is referee Chris Kavanagh, considered one of the stricter officials in England, averaging over four yellow cards per match. He is known for setting his disciplinary standard early and does not hesitate to sanction challenges without excessive tolerance, which is crucial for this type of bet.

The match itself could carry competitive intensity, Sunderland seeking points against a high-profile opponent, while Liverpool cannot afford a slip-up. Such dynamics typically result in more midfield duels, disrupted rhythm, and possible dissent toward the referee.

A line of 3.5 cards appears relatively low for a fixture of this profile. Four yellow cards represent a realistic minimum in a scenario involving physical duels and tactical fouls, with room for more should the match become tense in the second half.