LaLiga: Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad 01/11/2026

Athletic, averaging 13.5 shots per game, welcomes back the Williams brothers and is highly motivated after five derbies without a win as it hosts Real Sociedad, who concede 1.8 goals per game, so the tip is Athletic over 4.5 shots on target.

Shots on Target Betting

Tonight at San Mamés it’s the Basque derby, and everything suggests Athletic will go all out. The hosts arrive in great spirits after a 4-0 win, and the bookmakers have them as favourites, with odds of around 2.10 to 2.22. This team loves to shoot: 135 attempts in 10 rounds, or 13.5 per game, along with 54.7% possession and 56 corners won.

The danger comes from everywhere. Iñaki Williams has 18 shots, Sancet 17, Berchiche 16 and Nico Williams 15, and both Williams brothers come back fresh after being rested for the Cup tie against Prat. Berenguer is the team’s main playmaker, with 3 goals, 3 assists and 13 chances created. Real Sociedad are on a four-game winning streak, but they have conceded 18 goals in 10 rounds, or 1.8 per game, and have kept only one clean sheet.

A defence like that is there to be broken down. The maths is simple: from 13 to 14 shots, Athletic need just a third on target to go over the 4.5 line, which only requires slightly better accuracy than their average. The motivation is huge, as Bilbao haven’t beaten their rivals in the last five derbies and want to change that in front of a full stadium. I expect pressure from the first minute and a barrage of shots at the visitors’ goal.