Conference League: Rayo Vallecano – AEK 09/04/2026

Betting on goals

As a Spanish team, Rayo Vallecano have rightly taken the role of favorite. However, the stakes are important and the existence of a second leg will make both teams quite cautious.

Rayo are slightly below mid table in La Liga, but with the third worst attack in the league. In their last ten matches, only two produced more than two goals. The 3-1 away win over Samsunspor, where they scored three goals from eight shots corresponding to only 0.56 xG, and the 3-0 home win over bottom placed Oviedo.

In general they are an organized team with solid defensive structure and tactical discipline. They do not score easily and are not afraid to defend deep when necessary.

This season’s AEK is also a team with strong defensive organization. In all difficult matches so far, they played very cautiously, without the ball, prioritizing limiting opponent productivity. About half of their league wins are 1-0, while in the recent important away win against Olympiacos (also 1-0) they stood out more for their defense than for chances created.

Balanced match between two teams that pay great attention to defense. First legs of knockout ties often go at a low tempo with limited risk, which combined with the characteristics of both sides gives value to the low scoring scenario.