Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction – Can Paddy the Baddy win his first UFC title?

What a line up we have for UFC 324! There’s some hugely exciting bouts on the Fight Card, none more so than the headline fight between Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett. Paddy the Baddy has long called for a title fight, and now he has his chance to join Michael Bisping, Leon Edwards and Tom Aspinall as the only British fighters to win a UFC belt, albeit an interim title.

Paddy Pimblett destroyed Michael Chandler in his last bout at UFC 14, in a fight that very few gave Pimblett a chance of winning. Win it he did, very comfortably so too, and he’ll be looking to win this interim title for the chance to fight for the Undisputed Championship later in the year.

We’re going to assess each fighter’s chance of winning the fight, and the Interim belt in the process. Will Paddy the Baddy land his first title? Or will Justin Gaethje’s experience be enough to win another interim belt? Read on to find our Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction.

Paddy Pimblett has got what he’s asked for –  a shot at the title. Albeit the interim title, but a victory against Justin Gaethje will then give Paddy the Baddy the opportunity to fight for the Undisputed Lightweight belt against Ilia Topuria later in the year. The Englishman is the clear favourite to win with every betting site we’ve researched.

Justin Gaethje, though, shouldn’t be underestimated. The Highlight has a record of 26-5-0, with 20 KO/TKO victories. While Paddy has stated previously that ‘Scousers don’t get knocked out’, this will be the most dangerous fight he’s been involved in so far in his UFC career.

Pimblett has had 10 wins By Submission in his 23-3-0 record, but submitting Gaethje will be a difficult task. For our Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction, we think Paddy will have to win by KO or TKO with a similar performance he put in against Michael Chandler last time out.

What is the latest news?

To help us make an accurate Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction, it’s important we examine the latest news, form and injury concerns of both fighters.

Justin Gaethje – Can Gaethje’s experience see him through?

• Nationality: American
• Record –  26-5-0
• Age:  37
• Height: 5ft 11in
• Reach: 70in

Justin Gaethje has fought for interim belts before, but has never been given an opportunity to fight for the Undisputed title. He’s been asking for it, allegedly threatening to retire if he wasn’t given another shot. Well, Gaethje has got that chance now, a defeat of Paddy the Baddy will open the door to an Undisputed fight against Ilia Topuria later in the year.

Of Gaethje’s last five fights, the American won three, one by Majority Decision against Rafael Fiziev; one by KO/TKO against Dustin Poirier and his last fight, again against Fiziev, ended with a win by Unanimous Decision. In April 2024, Gaethje lost to Max Holloway by KO/TKO.

Paddy Pimblett – First title well within his grasp

• Nationality: English
• Record –  23-3-0
• Age: 30
• Height: 5ft 11in
• Reach: 73in

Paddy Pimblett has been crying out for a chance at the title, and this huge fight against Justin Gaethje could see him get the opportunity to fight for the Undisputed belt if, of course, he wins at UFC324.

Pimblett has an excellent MMA record of 23-3-0, and has never lost in the UFC. His performance against Michael Chandler in his last fight, which Paddy won by TKO, went a long way to silence his critics. In his four previous fights to the Chandler bout, Pimblett won two by Unanimous Decision, against Tony Ferguson and Jared Gordon, and two by submission, against King Green and Jordan Leavitt.

Where to watch Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

There are a range of official broadcasters for UFC 324 so you can watch if our Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction is accurate. It’s a PPV event, the cost of which will vary, depending on which country you’re watching from.

UFC have recently announced a deal with Paramount+, who’ll also be showing the fight live. Paramount+ subscribers will have access to the broadcast without any additional fees.

As it’s a PPV bout, it’s unlikely that a betting site will be able to provide a Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett live stream. However, text commentary and fight highlights will be available at most online bookmakers, along with the official UFC website.

• Global: Fight Pass, Paramount+ (in selected countries)
• UK: TNT Box Office
• US: Paramount+
• Brazil: Fight Pass
• Mexico: Fighting Sports Network
• UAE: Abu Dhabi Media
• India: Sony Ten
• Canada: Sportsnet

Who is on the Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett undercard?

UFC 324 promises a hugely exciting start to 2026. There’s some intriguing match ups on the Undercard, none more so than the co-main bout between Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes.

• Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes – Women’s Bantamweight
• Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong – Men’s Bantamweight
• Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis – Men’s Heavyweight
• Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva – Men’s Featherweight
• Alexa Grasso vs Rose Namajunas – Women’s Flyweight
• Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo – Men’s Bantamweight
• Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev – Middleweight

Prediction for Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

We simply cannot wait for this Lightweight Interim Title fight! Two top class fighters, who’ll both believe in their chances of winning. However, for our Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction, we’ve gone for Paddy the Baddy to win by Knockout or Technical Knockout. We don’t think he’ll be able to submit Gaethje – Gaethje has only lost twice by submission and those came against UFC icons Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.

We’re expecting Paddy to put in a similar performance in this one as he did against Michael Chandler – all-action, throwing huge punches and kicks that Chandler simply couldn’t deal with. If we had to choose a Round, we’d say Round 3, but we’ll stick with our Winner and Method of Victory combo bet.