UEFA Champions League: Long term bet for the final

Arsenal have a favorable path to the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League and based on the projected odds in the next stages, the 2.25 to reach the final looks high and offers clear betting value.

Long term bet

The UEFA draw smiled widely on Arsenal. Could this be the time for the Gunners to reach their first trophy with the big ears? That does not concern us much from a betting perspective. What matters here is that Arsenal confirm a major pricing mistake in the market.

They face Leverkusen in the round of 16 and their qualification is priced at 1.09.

Then they will play the winner of Sporting vs Bodo Glimt and their qualification would hardly be priced at 1.10, most likely around 1.07. If we multiply 1.09 by 1.07 we get 1.1663. That is the theoretical price for Arsenal to reach the semifinals. The toughest possible opponent there would be Barcelona.

Most bookmakers offer 2.20 for Arsenal to reach the final. What does that mean based on the above? That in the semifinal their qualification would be priced at 1.886, since 1.1663 multiplied by 1.886 gives 2.20. Would Arsenal be 1.886? Never. Not even against Barca. In that case they would be around 1.60 to 1.70 maximum, with Barcelona at 2.20 to 2.25. So even in the worst case scenario we would be able to secure profit from this pricing mistake.

As long as Arsenal get there.

Arsenal to reach the final at 2.20 and we will be in control.