Championship: Stoke vs Bristol City 24/10/2026

Due to Bristol’s disciplined style of play, Stoke’s significantly lower card count at home and the moderate approach of referee James Bell, I expect fewer than 4.5 cards in this match.

Cards Betting

The in-form hosts welcome a Bristol side that has been searching for itself for weeks. My tip for this match is under 4.5 cards, and the deeper I dig into the numbers, the more I like it.

The first reason is Bristol: away from home they pick up just 0.8 cards per game and, together with Middlesbrough, have the fewest yellows in the league, only 12 in 11 rounds, despite their poor run. Stoke are the rougher side, committing around 14 fouls per game, but they calm down at home and receive 1.8 cards, compared with 3.2 on the road.

The second reason is referee James Bell, who is averaging 3.3 cards per game this season and knows these two teams well: the two meetings between them that he refereed produced four and then three yellows. Two games with him, two winners. Adding it all up, I expect around three cards, and by my calculation the tip lands roughly seven times out of ten, with fair odds of around 1.40. I won’t sugarcoat it, there are risks. Over his career Bell has averaged close to four yellows per game in the Championship, Stoke already have two red cards this season, and the model predicts a tight 1-1, the kind of game that can boil over in the last twenty minutes.

Also check how your bookmaker counts a red card, because right on the 4.5 line it could decide the bet. I’m keeping the stake moderate at 3/10, and if the odds drop below 1.50, I’m out. For the more cautious, there’s also a backup option: Bristol under 1.5 cards.