World Cup 2026: Brazil vs Japan 29/06/2026

Asian handicap betting

Brazil may not have the most talented squad in the tournament, but they are a team that can defend effectively in a low block and punish opponents on the counterattack. The absence of Raphinha is a significant blow, however, as it reduces the quality of those transitions. The problem is that Brazil are unlikely to find the right conditions to play that way in this match, where they are expected to dominate possession as the favorites.

That is exactly where I have my doubts about them, and their recent friendly against Japan in Tokyo highlighted those concerns. Carlo Ancelotti’s side lost 3-2 despite enjoying 67% possession and completing far more passes than their opponents. However, they were second best in virtually every other key statistic, including shots and expected goals.

That victory was no fluke. Earlier this year Japan also defeated England at Wembley, while at the previous World Cup they famously beat both Germany and Spain. It is becoming increasingly clear that this team consistently raises its level when facing elite opposition.

Japan are the definition of a well-drilled team, something that is extremely rare at international level. They have worked under the same head coach and within the same tactical system for the past eight years. In terms of chemistry, cohesion and tactical understanding, they are among the very best national teams in the world. That continuity will once again be their greatest strength against Brazil.

I believe this matchup is far more balanced than the odds suggest, with Brazil priced at just 1.70. Therefore, I see value in backing Japan on the Asian Handicap at +0.75.