UEFA Nations League: Netherlands vs Serbia 04/10/2026

Serbia is in a serious attacking crisis and, given the expected dominance of the Netherlands, it will be difficult for them to surpass the line of 2.5 shots on target.

Betting on Shots on Target

We have seen everything there is to see from Serbia in the previous three Nations League matches against Greece, the Netherlands, and Germany. Barely any real chance of a positive result against Greece, below-average against the Netherlands, and the usual story against Germany — just one shot on target for the entire match. Simply dreadful.

Although several attempts were recorded in the home loss to the Netherlands in Belgrade (1–2), most of them came from random situations and set pieces, while the expected quality of chances (xG) and the overall flow of structured attacking play were minimal against an in-form Bart Verbruggen.

The data from the away match against Germany in Munich (2–0), where our national team managed just a single shot on target over the full 90 minutes — coming only in the 78th minute through Filip Kostić — clearly illustrates the depth of our attacking struggles.

Adding to that, the Netherlands already controlled the tempo at the “Rajko Mitić” stadium with over 60% possession, making it quite evident that at the Philips Stadion, the home side will apply intense high pressing, led by a defensive line featuring Virgil van Dijk and Micky van de Ven. Serbia will almost certainly be forced into a deep block, relying on rare and isolated counterattacks.

Without consistency in the attacking phase and with a minimal number of entries into the opponent’s penalty area, the line of 2.5 shots on target appears to be an insurmountable barrier for our team at this moment.