UEFA Nations League: Norway vs Denmark 24/09/2026

Denmark over 11.5 fouls — Norway’s direct style of play and Erling Haaland are expected to force Denmark into a high number of tactical fouls.

Fouls Betting

The Scandinavian derby at Ullevaal brings the first competitive meeting between Norway and Denmark in Nations League history, with the visitors arriving in an unfavorable position: Denmark missed the World Cup and have not played a match since June, while Norway come into the game on the back of a historic World Cup campaign, reaching the quarter-finals and recording wins over Brazil and Ivory Coast.

Ståle Solbakken’s side insist on quick transitions and vertical play through Martin Ødegaard towards Erling Haaland, meaning Brian Riemer’s players will have to close down the middle and accept significantly more defensive work than they are used to.

Although Denmark have averaged around 9 fouls committed and 12 fouls suffered over their last ten matches, the context of this game goes against those numbers. Norway are excellent at building attacks through the middle and drawing contact with their backs to goal, while every duel Haaland has with the center-backs and every attempt to play a direct pass into the penalty area could force Denmark to stop attacks with small, tactical fouls, particularly in the second half when their lack of competitive rhythm may start to show.

Therefore, the pick is Denmark over 11.5 fouls, going against their average and relying on the expected dominance of the home side.