Premier League: Arsenal vs Leeds 10/10/2026

Arsenal’s strong defence and Leeds’ modest attacking numbers point towards a low shot count for the visitors. Leeds under 9.5 shots looks like a reasonable option, although Rice’s fitness could be a factor.

Shots Betting

Arsenal are the defending champions, and the Gunners began their title defence with four consecutive wins before suffering a surprising 3-0 defeat to Brighton.

Leeds, on the other hand, have been one of the pleasant surprises of the season. They remain unbeaten and sit fifth in the table, with just three goals conceded — fewer than any other team in the league. However, their attacking numbers tell a less impressive story.

Leeds rank among the bottom eight teams for total shots (60), shots inside the box (40), big chances (10) and shots on target (17). That works out to around 12 shots per game, but those numbers came against Forest, Brentford, Palace and Newcastle, rather than away against the reigning champions.

The recent head-to-head record also supports the under, with Arsenal winning their last two meetings 4-0 and 5-0. Farke has promised an ambitious approach, aiming for periods of possession and attacking threat without naively exposing his team to counterattacks.

Additionally, Wilson and Bahoya are doubts, which could limit Leeds’ creativity. The main concern is Rice, who was not seen in training on Thursday. Without him, Arsenal’s midfield could be more vulnerable. Nevertheless, I believe Leeds under 9.5 shots remains a reasonable option.