UEFA Nations League: Romania vs Sweden 05/10/2026

Sweden should have no trouble surpassing 13.5 total shots against a weakened Romania side (missing key center-backs and having conceded 6 goals against Poland).

Betting on Shots

The line of 13.5 total shots for Sweden (on target, off target, and blocked combined) in tonight’s Nations League B clash in Bucharest appears to be an excellent value bet.

Sweden enter this match as group leaders, and in the previous head-to-head encounter just ten days ago in Solna (2:1 for Sweden), they recorded 13 total shots (5 on target, 3 off target, and 5 blocked) while controlling 57% of possession. They were already right on the edge of this line, and tonight’s circumstances are even more favorable.

The key factor lies in Romania’s significantly weakened defense. The hosts will be without suspended central defenders Radu Drăgușin and Virgil Ghiță, which seriously disrupts their defensive stability and forces them into a deeper, more reactive approach. Their recent defensive performance is also concerning — they conceded 6 goals against Poland, clearly highlighting major organizational issues at the back.

Although Alexander Isak is sidelined due to injury, Sweden’s attacking potential remains strong. Viktor Gyökeres leads the line, supported by offensively minded midfielders such as Bergvall, Ayari, and Nanasi, who collectively generate a high volume of attempts from various positions.

Additionally, Romania’s need for points could open up more space for Swedish transitions. In such a tactical setup, against a weakened and makeshift defensive line, it is realistic to expect Sweden to generate 14–18 total shots without major difficulty.

All things considered, this line carries clear value and stands out as one of the better options for tonight’s match.