Champions League: Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid 20/10/2026

We expect a cautious, tactical first half in which Atlético’s defensive discipline, combined with Stuttgart’s domestic inconsistency and defensive absences, points to few shots on target, making under 4.5 shots on target in the first 45 minutes a pick with genuine value.

Shots on Target Betting

Tuesday at the MHPArena isn’t just a meeting of two clubs, but of two moods: Stuttgart, who boast a perfect Champions League record after 3-1 and 3-0 wins over Viking and in Bratislava, and Atlético, who can make it seven straight wins across all competitions.

Still, the picture isn’t so rosy for the hosts, as Hoeneß’s side were beaten 1-0 by Hamburg and have lost three of their last four Bundesliga matches, so a more cautious start from them is a realistic expectation.

Simeone’s men are on a run in which they have kept four clean sheets with a 14-2 goal difference, and that defensive discipline is the foundation of this pick. It’s also worth noting that Atlético have lost each of their last five away games against Bundesliga opposition, something El Cholo is well aware of, so he’ll approach the first 45 minutes like a chess opening, with a compact block and minimal risk.

For the hosts, Al-Dakhil is definitely out, while Zagadou and Mittelstädt are doubtful, which further limits Stuttgart’s ability to attack at full strength, while the visitors are likely to be without Koke, and Romero is sidelined.

We expect a tactical half full of duels and set pieces, with long-range efforts that rarely hit the target, making under 4.5 shots on target in the first half a logical pick with real value.