World Cup: Mexico vs South Africa 11/06/2026

Asian handicap betting

The pressure of the opening match is probably the biggest obstacle Mexico will have to deal with. From a football perspective, however, the team looks to be in excellent form. With a 6-2-0 record in its 2026 friendlies – the only draws coming against Portugal and Belgium – and an impressive 15-2 aggregate goal difference, Mexico enters the tournament looking ready for a deep run.

South Africa, on the other hand, does not inspire much confidence. The team is winless in its last four friendlies (0-3-1), with the two most recent results being a home draw against Nicaragua and a 1-1 draw at a neutral venue against a heavily depleted Jamaica side. Led by 34-year-old goalkeeper Williams and featuring Burnley’s pacey forward Foster as its standout player, the squad includes only five players competing in European leagues, with clubs such as Molde, Tondela, Hannover and AEK Larnaca. Overall, it appears to be one of the weakest rosters in the tournament.

The 2,240-meter altitude of the Azteca Stadium gives Mexico an additional advantage. South Africa may cope with the conditions better than the other two teams in the group, as several of its players are familiar with playing at high altitude, considering Johannesburg sits at 1,753 meters above sea level. Even so, the quality gap between the two sides is significant.

I expect the hosts to claim the victory, potentially even keeping a clean sheet, a market that is available at attractive odds. My preferred bet, however, is Mexico -1.25 Asian Handicap, which pays in full if Mexico wins by at least two goals, while returning half the stake if the match is decided by a one-goal Mexican victory.