2026 FIFA World Cup: Spain vs Belgium 10/07/2026

Spain’s possession-based style and defensive solidity make them deserved favorites, but Belgium’s recent resurgence and attacking quality suggest this quarter-final will be much closer than the odds imply. With both teams likely to approach the match cautiously, the Asian Under 2.75 Goals market offers the best betting value.

Betting on goals

Spain has maintained the same football identity for many years. They defend by controlling possession, suffocating opponents through immediate ball recovery and patiently waiting for the right moments to strike. More than any other national team, they resemble a club side. Their tactical approach requires countless hours on the training ground and usually depends on clear superiority on the pitch to produce results.

This year’s squad still possesses tremendous quality, but the underwhelming form of several key players has limited its full potential. Lamine Yamal has worked hard but has yet to reach his best level, while Nico Williams suffered another injury against Uruguay and has contributed very little during the tournament.

Belgium’s campaign completely changed in the 86th minute of their Round of 16 clash against Senegal. Romelu Lukaku pulled one back to make it 2-1, sparking an incredible comeback. A team that had looked lifeless suddenly played with intensity and belief, eventually winning 3-2 after extra time before carrying that momentum into an impressive 4-1 victory over the USA to reach the quarter-finals. It will now be fascinating to see how they cope with a significant step up in opposition.

I understand why Spain are priced around 1.65 favorites, but I do not expect a comfortable victory. Belgium have enough quality to disrupt Spain’s rhythm and create problems of their own.

La Roja have not looked particularly clinical in front of goal, while at the other end they have kept five consecutive clean sheets. With so much at stake, both teams are likely to approach the match cautiously and avoid taking unnecessary risks.

I expect a tight, tactical contest and see good value in backing the asian under 2.75 goals, available at just under 1.90.